Big Data e política: aferindo o potencial preditivo da world wide web nas eleições europeias de 2014

Authors

  • Luísa Godinho

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15847/obsOBS12220181076

Keywords:

Big Data, Internet, eleições, opinião pública, posicionamento, previsões eleitorais.

Abstract

Inversamente à tendência dominante nos estudos eleitorais previsionais em ambiente digital, focados no microblogue Twitter como universo de análise, neste artigo desenvolve-se uma abordagem ecológica integrada ao posicionamento da opinião pública portuguesa durante a campanha eleitoral para as eleições europeias de 2014. O potencial preditivo de três categorias é testado – partido/coligação; cabeça-de-lista e lista – assim como o é a representatividade da world wide web, enquanto Big Data cientificamente válida para a investigação em Ciências Sociais. A primeira categoria revelou maior valor empírico relativo e a adequabilidade das redes sociais para a antecipação de acontecimentos sai parcialmente reforçada, reiterando-se, no entanto, a necessidade de mais estudos, em particular no plano nacional, onde a investigação nesta área é praticamente inexistente.

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Published

2018-06-04

How to Cite

Godinho, L. (2018). Big Data e política: aferindo o potencial preditivo da world wide web nas eleições europeias de 2014. Observatorio (OBS*), 12(2). https://doi.org/10.15847/obsOBS12220181076

Issue

Vol. 12 No. 2 (2018)

Section

Articles

License

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